19 Apr 2026

Man City vs Arsenal preview: Premier League stats, odds

Manchester City welcome Arsenal to the Etihad Stadium for a Premier League Round 33 clash that could tilt the title race conversation. The numbers suggest a possession-heavy home side against one of the league’s most efficient defenses. Here is how the matchup stacks up, using Sofascore data and odds.

What the numbers say

Manchester City have scored 63 and conceded 28 across 31 matches, with an average 60.1% possession and 88.6% passing accuracy. They’ve generated 98 big chances and taken 460 shots, including 339 from inside the box and 165 on target. Corners are a steady source too, with 182 won and 29% crossing accuracy.

Arsenal arrive with 62 goals scored and only 24 conceded in 32 matches, plus 15 clean sheets, the higher total in this matchup. They’ve allowed just 250 shots and 75 on target against, and faced 39 big chances, all lower figures than City’s defensive ledger. In attack, they’ve taken 470 shots, 157 on target, and matched City’s 145 accurate crosses, albeit from a higher volume of deliveries.

Likely XIs and shapes

Lineups are not confirmed at the time of writing, but both sides are listed in a 4-2-3-1 on Sofascore.

For Man City, the projected XI shows Gianluigi Donnarumma; Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Marc Guéhi, Nico O’Reilly; Bernardo Silva, Rodri; Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku; Erling Haaland.

Arsenal’s projected XI features David Raya; Ben White, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Piero Hincapié; Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice; Leandro Trossard, Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli; Viktor Gyökeres.

Where the game could swing

City’s edge in buildup is clear: 18,292 total passes with 9,185 accurate in the opposition half. They also win 58.5% of aerial duels and average 60% possession, so territory and second balls at the Etihad could matter. The flip side is ruthlessness. City have missed 61 big chances, while Arsenal have missed 60. Whichever frontline raises its conversion rate likely decides this.

Set pieces and wide play are a shared theme. City’s 182 corners and Arsenal’s 191 suggest frequent dead-ball moments. Both deliver plenty of crosses, with City a touch cleaner at 29% accuracy compared to Arsenal’s 24.2%. Given Arsenal’s 15 clean sheets and City’s 13, a single well-executed set piece might be the separator.

Odds and referee watch

Featured full-time odds point to a slight home lean: Man City 17/20, Draw 27/10, Arsenal 3/1. On the Asian handicap, City sit at -0.75 (41/40) with Arsenal at +0.75 (33/40). As always, odds are subject to change.

Anthony Taylor is the referee, with 648 games officiated and a historical record of 2,449 yellow cards, 49 second yellows and 67 reds. Discipline could shape rhythm, especially with both teams pressing high and contesting aerials frequently.

The Sofascore view

On Sofascore Rating, City’s season average stands at 7.02 compared to Arsenal’s 6.93, on a 1-to-10 scale where 10 is perfect. City lean on volume and field position, Arsenal on defensive control and clean-sheet consistency. Follow the match on Sofascore for live momentum swings, player Sofascore Ratings and in-game stats from the Etihad.