Conventional football wisdom would tell us that you have to shoot goals to score goals. While this is certainly true to some surface-level extent, the tendency to think of attacking as strictly a numbers game is falling out of favor. Instead, modern football tactics demand more efficient play, in which high-quality scoring opportunities are created through ingenuity and an understanding of the stats. If you would like to learn more about how efficient attacking is shaping this year’s results, read on for a clear explanation of the key points.

Shot Quality over Quantity

Statisticians have determined an analytical way to measure shot quality, via a metric known as Expected Goals, or xG, for short. The higher the xG of a shot, the more chance it has of successfully scoring a goal. It has been shown that when average scoring attempts have an xG of greater than 0.18, it leads to that club winning more matches. This methodology has been called the “Vancouver Approach” due to prioritizing high xG opportunities and limiting total shot volume. The data shows that taking shots from outside the box or from crowded areas has an incredibly low conversion rate. To be competitive in contemporary MLS matches, teams must think before they shoot.

Transition and Direct Play

Another longstanding football belief is the need for teams to possess the ball for as long as possible. Updated analysis suggests that speedy strategies that emphasize fierce attacks will lead to more wins. Directly aiming for a goal will lead to more points on the scoreboard. Teams such as Real Salt Lake have found success by going on at least 3.9 direct attacks per game. Physically dominant players have the advantage in this regard, as forced transitions result in a large percentage of the goals scored throughout a season.

High-Speed Off-Ball Movements

MLS is currently experiencing a 9.70% year-over-year surge in high-speed run counts (HSRC) per 90 minutes. Top teams are performing more high-speed runs than clubs in the Premier League. Since so many goals are the result of intense sprints, it has led to an increase in scoring throughout the league. Fast runners are becoming mandatory to stay competitive as speed takes precedence on the pitch.

In order to break speed records and maximize effectiveness during intense sprints, some players have elected to preserve energy throughout other parts of a match. For instance, “the walking strategy” involves barely moving beyond walking speed for most of a game. This approach allows a sprinter to save all his energy for one or two powerful rushes during pivotal moments later in the contest. This tactic is used to combat the phenomenon known as sprinter’s fatigue, in which top speed drops noticeably during the final fifteen minutes of a match.

The Role of Efficient Passing

Passing was primarily a tool for keeping possession of the ball as long as possible. In recent seasons, the need for efficient passing that moves the ball forward while bolstering defense has developed. A progressive pass moves the ball down the field by at least ten yards. Teams that consistently perform progressive passes end up near the top of the standings.

Many commentators call this methodology the “Columbus Model’ due to how successful the Columbus Crew have been in implementing it. They rank first in short passes and ball carries, which has served them by opening up lanes for their attackers. By forcing defensive rotations with this strategy, many additional scoring opportunities open up throughout a match.

Strategic Set Pieces

Now that league parity has made open-play goals increasingly rare, teams are looking for more tactical ways to score some goals. Deadball scenarios can be carefully crafted into scoring opportunities from this perspective. The result is similar to the NFL, in which strategic set pieces serve as a fine chance to put numbers on the board. Almost 20% of goals are now scored in this manner.

When teams can control where players will be on the field, the success rate of shots effectively doubles when compared to open play. Deadlocked matches can easily be decided by setting up penalty kicks and similar scenarios on purpose. Fans typically don’t mind this trend, as it leads to dramatic late-game moments and overwhelming spectacle.

Proactivity over Possession

Being proactive in MLS involves defensive intensity while pressing and an overall tendency towards offensive risk-taking throughout a match. While raw possession is one thing, what you do with the ball matters most of all. Committing to proactive play is what makes MLS superstars and elite teams always stay near the top of the rankings.

Rather than handling the ball, modern teams emphasize the control of territory instead. The idea is to position both the offense and defense for success as often as possible. Consistency is key to making it onto the leaderboards with a proactive approach. Clubs that remain only half-committed to proactivity tend to perform worse throughout a full season.

The Heightened Importance of Statistics

Like most modern sports, MLS is increasingly dominated by teams willing to crunch the numbers a bit. Although stats will never replace talent, sound strategies have proven vastly more useful than blindly trusting brute force. Still, it is important to preserve the spirit of the game and not boil everything down to equations and pre-determined choices. Unexpected moments that no statistician could ever predict will always have a place in every fan’s heart.