18 May 2026

Arsenal vs Burnley: Two Wins Away from the History

Arsenal welcome Burnley to Emirates Stadium in Premier League Round 37, with the home side’s numbers pointing one way. Both teams are listed in a 4-2-3-1 on the Sofascore match page, and the odds back a one-sided afternoon in London.

What the numbers say

Arsenal arrive with one of the league’s most efficient profiles: 68 goals scored, only 26 conceded and 18 clean sheets over 36 matches. They average 55.9% possession, complete 84% of passes and generate 108 big chances. The flip side is ruthlessness: 71 big chances missed hint there’s room to be more clinical.

Burnley’s figures tell a different story. They’ve scored 37, conceded 73 and kept 4 clean sheets. Opponents have put 607 shots up against them, with 209 on target. They do fight for territory though, logging 607 tackles and 329 interceptions, and stay alive via 1105 clearances.

Probable lineups and key matchups

Both sides are shown in a 4-2-3-1. For Arsenal, Declan Rice (Sofascore Rating 7.43) anchors midfield ahead of a back line featuring William Saliba (7.02) and Gabriel Magalhães (7.29). In attack, Bukayo Saka (7.23) and Leandro Trossard (6.95) support Viktor Gyökeres (6.61), with David Raya (6.9) in goal.

Burnley’s probable XI features goalkeeper Max Weiss (7.1) behind Kyle Walker, Axel Tuanzebe, Maxime Estève (6.62) and Lucas Pires. The double pivot of Florentino Luís (6.67) and Lesley Ugochukwu (6.7) sets a platform for Loum Tchaouna (6.59), Jaidon Anthony (6.8) and Zian Flemming (6.79). Arsenal’s 651 crosses and strong wing play meet a Burnley unit that has allowed 790 opposition crosses, 215 successful.

Odds and what they imply

The featured full-time market lists Arsenal at 2/25, the draw at 10/1 and Burnley at 25/1. That roughly implies an Arsenal win chance north of 90%, with the draw around 9% and an away win near 4% once you account for the book’s margin. The Asian handicap sits at Arsenal -2.5 (9/10), which matches the statistical gap: Arsenal average 14.5 shots on target per 100 shots, while Burnley face heavy volume and rely on 132 saves to stay in games.

The referee and the tempo

Paul Tierney takes charge. Across 402 matches he’s shown 1305 yellows and 28 reds, landing near 3.2 yellows per game. That level of whistle can matter for Burnley’s duel-heavy approach (47.1% duels won) and for Arsenal’s territorial squeeze, where set pieces and restarts already help them pile pressure. Arsenal have earned 209 corners to Burnley’s 128, and they’ve scored 54 times from inside the box, a zone Burnley have defended the most.

If trends hold, Arsenal’s volume of entries, crossing lanes and high pressing should force territory. Burnley will look to break quickly, but with only 1 fast break goal from 23 attempts, they’ll need sharper finishing to make the counter count.

Follow the match on Sofascore for live momentum, real-time Sofascore Ratings and all the in-game stats from Emirates Stadium.