USA vs Mexico predictions: El Tri can complete successful defence
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- Diego Luna scored twice in first 15 minutes of USA's 2-1 semi-final win over Guatemala
- Mexico triumphed at 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup and 2024-25 CONCACAF Nations League
- Recommended bet: Mexico to win 1-0
The USA and Mexico have dominated the CONCACAF Gold Cup, winning 16 of the 17 editions and the regional powerhouses meet in the 2025 final in Houston.
Mexico are the reigning champions, having beaten Panama 1-0 in the 2023 final, while they also won the CONCACAF Nations League final against the same opponents in March.
Their defence has been outstanding on route to the final, but the USA needed penalties to get past Costa Rica in the last eight before their 2-1 semi-final victory against Guatemala.
Team news
USA coach Mauricio Pochettino could name the same team who started the semi-final against Guatemala, with the in-form Diego Luna on the left wing and Patrick Agyemang up front.
Europe-based stars Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah, Giovanni Reyna, Weston McKennie, Antonee Robinson, Folarin Balogun and Serginho Dest were unavailable for this tournament.
Mexico boss Javier Aguirre will choose between Mateo Chavez and Jesus Gallardo at left-back.
West Ham midfielder Edson Alvarez captains El Tri with Fulham's Raul Jimenez leading the line and goalkeeper Luis Malagon is targeting a fifth straight clean sheet.
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The stats
The USA have won five of their last six home games against Mexico, while there have been over 2.5 goals in 10 of the their last 12 matches.
The USA have kept only two clean sheets in their last nine internationals and Mexico have conceded just three shots on target in their last four games.
Centre-back Cesar Montes has notched three goals in four matches at this tournament, having scored only once in his previous 54 Mexico appearances.
Mexico have won three of their last four matches to nil.
Prediction
Mexico won the 2023 CONCACAF Gold Cup final with a 1-0 success against Panama and a repeat of that scoreline is worth backing when they face the USA.
El Tri started their campaign with a 3-2 group win over the Dominican Republic, but they have not conceded a goal in four subsequent matches.
They have virtually a full-strength squad for the Gold Cup, while the USA are missing a host of big names due to injuries and Club World Cup commitments.
Diego Luna has scored three of their four goals in the knockout stages and playmaker Malik Tillman has also had an excellent tournament.
However, breaking down Mexico's defence will not be easy, as the USA discovered in last October's 2-0 friendly defeat in Guadalajara.
Mauricio Pochettino's men mustered only one shot on target that day and Mexico have successfully stifled their opponents at the Gold Cup.
Goalkeeper Luis Malagon faced only three shots on target in the wins over Suriname, Saudi Arabia and Honduras as well as the 0-0 group-stage draw with Costa Rica.
The USA thrashed Trinidad and Tobago 5-0 in their opening game but they have been far less convincing since then, recording narrow wins over the Saudis and Haiti in Group D.
They conceded an early goal in their 2-2 quarter-final draw with Costa Rica before prevailing 4-3 in a penalty shootout and could come up short against an experienced and settled Mexico side.
