Germany vs Italy predictions: Azzurri defence to be breached
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- Germany unbeaten in seven Nations League games this season, winning five
- Germany have scored at least twice in 11 of their last 16 matches
- Recommended bet: Over 1.5 Germany goals
Germany recovered from a goal down to claim a 2-1 first-leg lead against Italy at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Thursday and they should be hopeful of completing the job in front of home support at Borussia Dortmund’s Signal Iduna Park.
Italy had taken a ninth-minute lead through Newcastle ace Sandro Tonali before second-half headers from Tim Kleindienst and Leon Goretzka helped the Germans secure a first away victory over the Azzurri in 39 years.
Germany are bidding to make the Nations League semi-final for the first time, while Italy are hoping to recover to emulate their achievements in 2021 and 2023.
However, the Azzurri’s defeat at home has given them an uphill battle against a resurgent German outfit who are unbeaten in their last 16 internationals in 90 minutes. The 2-1 extra-time defeat to Spain in the quarter-final of Euro 2024 is the only blot on their copybook.
Italy have no choice but to adopt positive tactics in their pursuit of victory, but that may only play into the hands of their hosts.
Team news
Florian Wirtz was suspended for the first leg and is also a doubt for the reverse fixture due to injury, while Marc-Andre Stegen, Kai Havertz, Benjamin Henrichs, Felix Nmecha and Aleksandar Pavlovic are all sidelined.
With Italy wing-back Federico Dimarco injured, Tottenham’s Destiny Udogie is likely to keep his place at left-back.
The Azzurri are also without the services of the sidelined Andrea Cambiaso, while Mateo Retegui was forced to withdraw from the squad and Manuel Locatelli was left out.
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The stats
Germany are unbeaten after 90 minutes in their last 16 internationals and they won all three Nations League home games to nil to top Group A3 ahead of the Netherlands.
Germany have scored at least twice in 11 of their last 16 matches.
Italy have won only four of their last 10 internationals, losing their last two Nations League matches to France and Germany.
Both teams have scored in six of Italy’s last seven fixtures, while the same has occurred in four of Germany’s last six and both teams have scored in eight of the last nine meetings between these two teams.
Prediction
Germany are again starting to look like a force under manager Julian Nagelsmann, whose 20 matches in charge have featured 12 wins and only three defeats.
The Germans could be stronger had it not been for injuries, but that did not stop them from winning 2-1 away in the opening leg and Italy’s desperation for victory could see them vulnerable from a defensive point of view.
Germany won all three home games in the group stage to nil, against Hungary, Netherlands and Bosnia-Herzegovina, racking up 13 goals in the process.
That in itself could spell trouble for the visitors, who have managed only one clean sheet in their last 11 internationals and suggests that the hosts may be able to frank the form in what may prove another lively affair.
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