Derby vs Luton predictions: Pride Park set for tense relegation battle
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- Derby are bidding to avoid an immediate return to League One
- Luton could suffer relegation for the second season in a row
- Recommended bet: Under 1.5 goals
Derby and Luton meet in a Championship relegation six-pointer at Pride Park on Friday as both sides aim to boost their survival hopes with a victory.
The Rams currently sit a place and point above the relegation zone after drawing their last two games against Burnley and Portsmouth, while Town are second bottom but they can move level on points with their hosts if they claim the spoils.
Team news
Derby's injury list is extensive, with Ryan Nyambe, Kemar Roofe, Ben Osborn, Dajaune Brown (all hamstring), David Ozoh (thigh), Lars-Jorgen Salvesen (knee) and Curtis Nelson (ACL) all currently on the treatment table.
There is some hope that full-back Callum Elder can return from the knock that has kept him out of the last three matches, while Sondre Langas will continue to play through the pain barrier ahead of knee surgery this summer.
Luton will be without a trio of key players for the remainder of the season, with Alfie Doughty (hamstring), Elijah Adebayo (knee) and Jacob Brown (ankle) all sidelined.
There is better news regarding midfielder Marvelous Nakamba, who was an unused substitute for Saturday's 1-0 home loss to Blackburn after missing the previous seven games with a calf injury.
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The stats
After losing his first three games in charge, Derby head coach John Eustace has only seen his side suffer defeat once in their last seven matches.
Had the season begun at the start of March, Derby would be sitting fourth in the standings.
Nine of the Rams' 11 league wins this season have come on home soil and they have picked up 10 points from the last 12 available at Pride Park.
Luton saw a five-match unbeaten run ended by Saturday's home defeat to Blackburn, but Matt Bloomfield has only won three of his 16 matches since taking charge in January.
The Hatters have picked up seven points from their last three away games, having collected just five from their first 18 road matches of the season.
Luton came from behind to win 2-1 when these sides met at Kenilworth Road earlier in the season – Tom Holmes and Carlton Morris scoring in the 89th and 92nd minutes for the Hatters that day.
Prediction
These two sides have both found their form when it matters most in the Championship relegation battle, with Derby losing just once in seven matches and Luton suffering only two defeats in eight.
That makes picking a winner on Friday difficult, but with so much on the line at Pride Park it may prove to be a tight and tense battle.
Two of Derby's last three matches have gone under 1.5 goals, while they have only conceded twice in their six home games since mid-February.
Luton are the lowest scorers in the Championship – netting just 37 in 42 games – with three of their last five matches featuring a maximum of one goal.
This has all the makings of a game that will be settled by just one moment, although perhaps not even that, so backing under 1.5 goals could be the way to go.
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