How to Use xG (Expected Goals) to Bet Smarter on the Premier League

What is xG? 

xG is a commonly used abbreviation for Expected Goals. It’s a measure that shows the probability of every shot taken based on a number of factors, such as distance, angle, type of assist, and whether it was taken with the foot or the head. 

Here are some live examples:

• A close-range tap-in might have an xG of 0.8 (80% chance of scoring).

• A long-range shot from outside the box might be 0.05 (5% chance of scoring).

By collating all this data, you are left with a team’s total xG for a match, giving you a more accurate picture of how dangerous they are, beyond the randomness of finishing and goalkeeping performance. 

Why xG Matters for Bettors

Many Premier League betting sites and markets often overreact to recent scorelines. It is possible that a team that lost 1-0 in their recent fixture might have created better chances than a team that recently won 3-0. xG allows you to separate performance from outcome, giving you a better edge over using narrative-driven odds. 

Key Uses of xG in Betting:

• Spotting Overvalued Teams: A team that wins games with low xG may be successful due to clinical finishing or lucky defending. However, bookmakers might price them too short in upcoming fixtures.

• Identifying Undervalued Teams: A team with strong xG numbers but poor results may be worth backing before results turn around. Over time, xG tends to correlate with actual goals.

• Goals Markets (Over/Under): Checking combined xG (for and against) can give you an idea about whether matches are likely to be high or low scoring.

• Player Prop Bets: Individual xG stats can help highlight strikers who are getting into great positions, even if they’ve been wasteful recently. Now could be a good time to back them in goalscorer markets.

Practical Betting Tips with xG

Here’s how you can put xG into practice as a smarter bettor:

Use Rolling Averages

Don’t rely on single-match xG numbers—they can be skewed by penalties, red cards, or freak games. Look at 5–10 game rolling averages to get a clearer sense of true team strength.

Check xG Difference (xGD)

The gap between a team’s xG for and xG against is a powerful indicator of quality. A positive xGD suggests dominance, while a negative xGD highlights weakness.

Account for Match Context

A team protecting a lead might sit back and concede xG without real pressure. Always consider tactics, game state, and opponent quality alongside the raw numbers.

Look at Home vs Away Splits

Some teams create strong xG at home but struggle away. Splitting the data helps avoid misleading averages.

Don’t Ignore Goalkeepers

Some goalkeepers consistently outperform xG against (shot-stopping above expectation). This can sustain short-term results, but over a full season, it usually regresses.

Spot Trends Early

Teams under new managers often show xG improvement before results catch up. Getting ahead of the market here can be very profitable.

Blend xG with Other Metrics

Use xG as the foundation, but combine it with possession data, shot maps, and pressing stats to build a fuller picture.

You May Also Be Interested In...

• https://www.livescore.com/en-gb/betting-sites/strategy/what-are-prop-bets/

Responsible Gambling

While xG can help you make more informed betting decisions, it’s important to remember that no model guarantees profits. Football is unpredictable, and betting should always remain a form of entertainment—not a way to make consistent income.

In the UK, several resources are available to support responsible gambling:

• Set limits: Most betting sites allow you to set deposit and loss limits. Use these tools to stay in control.

• Take breaks: If betting stops being fun or starts feeling stressful, step away.

• Know the signs: Chasing losses, hiding betting activity, or betting with money you can’t afford to lose are red flags.

• Seek help if needed:

  • GambleAware: offers free advice and resources.

  • GamCare: runs the National Gambling Helpline (0808 8020 133).

  • GamStop: allows you to self-exclude from all UK-licensed gambling sites.