How to Spot Value in Premier League Underdogs

What Does ‘Value’ Mean in Football Betting?

Backing the favourites to win every match in the Premier League only gives you a handful of profit. That's why you must learn to spot value in odds to get more payouts.

Value in football betting means that the odds offered by the bookmaker are higher than the true probability of the event happening. In simple terms, when you believe a team has a higher possibility of winning the event than the bookmaker has projected.

For instance, a bookmaker offered odds of 1/4 for Chelsea to win and 5/1 for Crystal Palace to win. If your analysis showed that Crystal Palace have been in good form and can cause an upset, you've spotted a value in the odds. A win for Palace could give you a total payout of £300 if you wager £50. 

Characteristics of Premier League Underdogs

If you want to spot values on underdogs consistently, there are certain traits to watch out for. Here are some of them.

• Momentum from recent results: Whenever teams like Brighton, Bournemouth, and Aston Villa are on a run of good form, it might be the best time to back them. These teams build on momentum from recent results and may sometimes upset the bigger teams.

• Defensive solidity: Clubs like Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, and Crystal Palace have thrived on defensive solidity in recent years. If you notice a team stays locked in defence and is hard to break down, it might be a good time to back them. They sometimes upset their opponents by scoring first and holding on tight until the end of the match.

• Strong home form: Teams like Newcastle and Brentford are more solid at home. St James' Park has particularly been a fortress for Newcastle, and they're hard to crack down there. If they're playing against any of the traditional six at their home ground, backing Newcastle may be a good option.

• Counter-attacking ability: Clubs like Crystal Palace thrive in counterattacks. They employed this style to claim their first-ever trophy, beating Manchester City 1-0 in the 2025 FA Cup final. Everton, West Ham, and Brentford are among the teams that have thrived with counter-attacking football in recent years.

• New signings/managers: The concept of new manager bounce is real, as players often try to prove a point when a new manager takes over. For instance, Leicester City appointed Ruud van Nistelrooy on November 29, 2024, during the 2024/25 Premier League season. He won his first match 3-1 against West Ham and drew 2-2 against Brighton after that. New players coming in also give some clubs a boost by having an immediate impact.

Related Post: Best Premier League 25/26 Betting Sites in the UK

Key Factors to Analyse Before Backing an Underdog

While backing an underdog may offer attractive odds, betting blindly often results in a consistent run of losses. Before placing a wager, here are the factors you need to analyse.

• Tactical setup: Check if the team plays a defensive or attacking style of football. Do they counterattack fast or thrive in transitions? You may also check if another team has excelled using this style of play against the favourite side in the past.

• Player availability: Are key players missing? If the key players in the squad are missing due to injury or suspension, it may not be the best time to back them. You may also consider their chances if key players from the opponents are missing. For instance, Mohamed Salah's absence from Liverpool can shift the advantage in favour of a team like Wolverhampton.

• Fixture congestion: Traditional top-six teams, such as Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea, typically play three times a week due to their participation in European competitions. Clubs like Newcastle and Aston Villa now also feature regularly in Europe, leading to fixture congestion. A team like Bournemouth, Brighton, and Brentford may fancy their chances against Arsenal, who have just played Champions League football in midweek.

• Head-to-head: One key factor to research is the head-to-head between the two sides. If the underdog has upset the favourite in recent meetings, they could do it again.

• Weather conditions: Cold nights at Newcastle and Everton present a tough challenge to the opponents. Combining weather conditions like rain and snow with home advantage will give teams like Newcastle an advantage.

• Motivation: Teams involved in relegation battles put in their best performance towards the end of the season. This is when more upsets are usually common, especially when they're playing against a mid-table team. 

Case Studies: Famous Premier League Upsets

The most notable memorable moment from an underdog in Premier League history was Leicester City’s title win in the 2015/16 season. Before the start of the season, Manchester City and Chelsea were clear favourites to win the league, while Leicester City were one of the least favourites with most bookies backing them at 5000/1. Only a few punters jumped on this value. 

A more recent upset from an underdog came when Crystal Palace defeated Manchester City to win the 2025 FA Cup. Man City were clear favourites going into the match with odds of 4/5 on Bet365, while Palace were priced at 7/2. Those who watched Palace defeat Aston Villa 3-0 in the semifinals recognised this value in the odds.  

It was a memorable moment for Palace getting a 1-0 victory thanks to a 16th-minute strike from Eberechi Eze. Dean Henderson was also excellent with a penalty save in the 36th minute from Omar Marmoush.

How to Use Statistics and Data to Spot Value

Relying solely on intuition is not the best way to place any bets. It's best to back your decisions with statistics and data, especially when looking for value odds to give you an overview of what to expect.

It's essential to check for both teams' expected goals (XG), recent form, including home and away performances and shots on target. You may also check their possession stats to understand if a team give up possession for a more counterattacking style of play. With these stats, you don't necessarily have to watch the team before backing them because recent statistics and data give you an idea of what will happen in the game.

Platforms like SofaScore, FotMob, and Understats provide the necessary data you may need. You will also find most of these stats for each match on your chosen betting site. Everything you need is right there on your bookmaker. 

Risks of Backing Underdogs and How to Manage Them

Backing underdogs comes with a lot of risk, but you can manage them by following these tips.

• Bankroll management: We recommend maintaining a consistent stake size for all bets to stay in control. Don't wager more than you can afford to lose. With a small stake on the underdog, you can still payout big if your bet wins.

• Set betting limits: Determine a maximum stake amount and stick to it to avoid substantial losses.

• Understand variance: You cannot win all value odds bets. In most cases, you would lose more than you would win. However, if you stay consistent, you will be in profit because the few wins will cover the losses. Also, don't expect to win immediately. Making a profit from value bets can take a long time. Targeting a run of 10 matches may work.

You May Also Be Interested In...

• https://www.livescore.com/en-gb/betting-sites/strategy/how-circuit-style-affects-formula-one-betting-odds/

• https://www.livescore.com/en-gb/betting-sites/strategy/how-to-bet-on-the-italian-grand-prix-at-monza/

• https://www.livescore.com/en-gb/betting-sites/strategy/how-premier-league-outright-markets-shift-over-the-season/

Responsible Gambling 

Despite the possibility of paying out big from value odds, responsible gambling is key. Use deposit and time limits to stay disciplined and avoid chasing losses. If you need more time off gambling, sign up for the GamStop self-exclusion programme.

Please note that you will also need to provide your government-issued ID to verify your age and identity. You can only gamble at UK bookmakers if you're 18 years or above. Submitting your documents is part of the UK Gambling Commission's mandate to safeguard you.