How to Bet on Underdogs in the Champions League

What Makes a Champions League Underdog?

A Champions League underdog is simply a team or a player that the bookie considers to have a lower likelihood of winning in a match. Such teams usually have longer odds, but bookmakers offer higher payout potential on them to balance the risk.

Underdogs are not determined randomly, though. Bookmakers use statistical modelling, historical performance of the team and players, and public sentiment, to determine which team will be an underdog and then assign odds. The process also includes analysing;

• Past results: How has the team performed in the past?

• Team strength: Weaker teams are often underdogs.

• Injuries: If a team is missing key players, it might shift to underdog status.

Why Underdogs Can Offer Value Bets

Betting on Champions League underdogs is not just about chasing their high potential payouts. It’s about finding value, since most bookies tend to overlook these teams and offer overpriced odds. So, how does this happen? Let's look at an example.

Big teams like Arsenal and Manchester City have massive followings, and many punters bet on them simply because they are favourites, not because they have assessed the match analytically. To balance the risks, this pushes the odds of underdogs even higher than they should be, and this is where you can find value bets. Instead of backing the teams blindly, you research recent data, statistics, and teams and players’ form to identify when the odds are off. This gives you an advantage, knowing that the underdog has greater win potential than the favourite.

Another way underdogs offer better value is when bookmakers undervalue them, giving them longer odds simply because the markets or many bettors ignore them. If you can identify an underdog that has been building solid form and starts behind the scenes, you have a real chance of winning in your bets, especially during upsets or when the underdogs are playing at home. 

History has always proved that betting on an underdog with a smart strategy can give you an edge. Nowadays, underdog wins happen almost every week in football, including in the Champions League, and arguably the greatest underdog victories in English football history happened when Leicester City won the 2015-2016 Premier League, defying the odds. Bookies had them at 5,000-1 to win, but they defied all odds, showcasing the power of momentum and smart tactics. So, with a smart underdog strategy, you always have a chance of betting on the underdog and winning.

Key Factors to Analyse Before Backing an Underdog

Underdog betting is all about strategy, and before you bet on the team, there are some factors you need to consider, as we will discuss below.

Team Form

The team’s form plays a big role in a football match's outcome. So, research on the team’s recent stats and results, especially on their last five games, even against stronger teams. Have they been competitive? Did they lose narrowly? 

Also, compare the team’s domestic vs European performance. If the team has been building momentum and performing better than expected, the chances of upsets are high.

Injuries and Suspension

Many favourites rely on their star players for success. That means, if key players are sustaining injuries or are on rotation or suspension, it can weaken their squad and make the team vulnerable to an upset. So, in such a scenario, it can be worth taking a risk and betting on the underdog as the missing key players or favourites give the underdog a greater chance of winning.

Playing Style and Matchups

Another factor to consider before backing an underdog is the playstyle the teams use. One of the tactics underdogs use to win games is by counter-attacking, where they absorb the pressure, waiting for the right moment to strike.

You should also consider the matchups. If an underdog is matched with a team they have a long history of rivalry with, betting on the underdog could be a smart choice. This is due to the intense emotions and high stakes, which can level the playing field, increasing the chances of an upset.

Home vs Away Advantage

When the underdogs are playing at home, it can be a massive boost for them, even if they are playing against a stronger team. Home weather conditions can also give underdogs an advantage over opponents, especially if the team is not used to playing in adverse weather conditions. Combining this with the home advantage, underdogs can easily pull off an upset.

Team Motivation

Some football matches and tournaments matter more than others. For example, underdogs fighting for a spot in the playoffs, trying to prove themselves in high-profile matches, or playing against rivals may perform better than expected.

Some favourites may also overlook or underestimate underdogs, especially if they have been on a winning streak, players feel overconfident, or have a bigger game ahead. This can open an opportunity for the underdog to pull off an upset and win the match. Additionally, in the Champions League group stages, some teams may qualify early and rest players. This gives the underdog a great opportunity to capitalise.

Popular Markets for Betting on Underdogs

The Champions League offer a wide range of betting markets, but not all are suitable for backing the underdog. The best markets for betting on the underdog are;

• Match Result: In this market, you bet on the outcome of the match, and it has three options. You bet on which team will win, if the game will end in a draw, or if one of the teams will suffer a defeat. So, after you have done research and found value on the underdog, you should bet on the underdog to win or the favourite to lose.

• Double Chance: Double Chance is slightly similar to Match Result, but in this market, you bet on two possible outcomes instead of just one. That is, you can back a ‘home win or draw,’ ‘away win or draw,’ or a ‘home or away win.’ The market is ideal for betting on the underdog when you are not 100% confident about the possible outcome. In such a case, you bet on a ‘home win or a draw,’ allowing you to get a payout whether the underdog wins or the match ends in a draw.

• Over/Under Goals: Here, you are not concerned with whether the underdog wins or loses. Instead, you focus on the total goals of both teams and bet whether they will be under or over the line.

• Both Teams To Score (BTTS): In this market, you bet that both the underdog and favourite will score at least a goal during the match.

Common Mistakes When Betting on Underdogs

Betting on the underdog can offer huge potential payouts, but there are some common mistakes you should really avoid.

One of the major mistakes many beginners make is betting purely on emotions. Just because you like a certain team, or it is popular, doesn’t mean it is going to win. Also, you should not bet while you are feeling stressed or too excited, as it can hinder your informed decision-making.

Many punters in the UK also make the mistake of ignoring the team’s form when betting. You should always do your research and don’t back a team blindly, especially favourites.

Chasing losses is another common mistake that you should avoid. Setting bet limits to avoid overspending and taking regular breaks can help you manage your betting urges and habits.

Some punters also misunderstand the odds. For instance, not all high odds represent high value. This is because the higher the odds, the greater the risk. The best strategy is to bet on high odds only when the underdog offers true value.

More Guides on UK Sports Betting:

• How to Find Value in Champions League Group Stage Betting

• How to Bet on Singapore Grand Prix at Marina Bay

Responsible Gambling

Despite underdog betting offering the possibility of high returns, the risks are also greater. Therefore, you should prioritise responsible betting by only betting with the money you can afford to lose. You should also take regular breaks from betting activities and utilise the responsible gambling tools available on the bookmaker you’re using. Those tools may include deposit limits, reality checks, and timeouts.