How Premier League Outright Markets Shift Over the Season (And When to Lock In Value)

What Are Premier League Outright Betting Markets?

Rather than bet on a single Premier League match, you can predict who will win the league or score the highest number of goals. Outright betting markets are wagers for the future, allowing you to bet on outcomes of an entire Premier League season. Aside from betting on the league winner or top goalscorer, you can also predict teams to get relegated or make the top 4. 

Most bookmakers usually present odds for outright markets before the start of the season. However, the odds will begin to change as the season progresses. To lock in on value, it's usually recommended to wager before the season begins. Once the season starts, the odds value on favourites may decrease if they start the season strongly.

How Odds Are Calculated and Why They Change

Most Premier League betting sites present odds on outright markets before the season begins by using implied probability to calculate the winning possibilities of each team. For instance, Newcastle may be backed at odds of 5/1 to finish in the top 6. This implies a 16.7% probability, indicating that Newcastle’s chance of securing a top 6 finish.

Bookies use different factors to display odds even before the season starts. Some of these include team or player strength, fixture difficulty and form in recent seasons. If Newcastle play Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester United, and Chelsea in the first 10 games of the season, their implied probability of finishing in the top 6 will likely reduce.

Injuries, managerial change and transfers also play a key role in odds. Adding a superstar player will improve a team's chances of winning the league. Some of these factors also contribute to changes in odds throughout the season. For instance, an ACL injury to a key player during the season reduces the team's chances. Their odds value will increase to reflect a reduction in their chances. 

Bookies also consider performance and momentum as the season progresses. A strong start for a team like Brighton will decrease the value of their odds, moving them closer to being favourites. 

Finally, Premier League betting sites may adjust odds based on the volume of bets they receive. If most punters are backing Manchester City, for instance, their odds will be shortened. Bookmakers do this to prevent everybody from getting a payout. They'll increase the odds for other teams to attract more punters to bet on the less favourite teams.

Key Factors That Move Outright Markets During the Season

Now, let's go into the details of the factors that affect outright markets during the season. Odds shifting upwards or downwards will depend on one or all of the following.

Early-Season Form vs. Pre-Season Expectations

Before the season kicks off, a bookie may back Chelsea as the favourites to win the league, only for the Blues to have a poor start. Chelsea’s implied probability will begin to reduce as the poor form persists.

Impact of Head-to-Head Matches Between Title Rivals

Betting sites consider the head-to-head between title rivals. For instance, the market will shift in Arsenal’s favour if they win their matches against other title rivals. 

Transfer Windows

Both summer and January transfer windows affect outright betting markets. Signing a star player suddenly lifts a team's chances. For instance, Liverpool’s probability of winning the 2025/26 increased after signing Alexander Isak from Newcastle in the summer of 2025.

Injuries/Suspensions

Injuries are a part of the game and can significantly impact a team's chances of winning the league or avoiding relegation. An example was when Arsenal lost Bukayo Saka to a hamstring injury from December 21, 2024 to April 1, 2025. His absence reduced Arsenal’s chances of winning the 2024/25 title. Suspensions resulting from red cards also lead to the absence of key players, playing a key role in outright markets.

Fixture Congestion

Teams that compete in Europe are likely to be affected by fixture congestion. Reaching the UEFA Champions League final will add more games to a team's schedule, which could reduce their chances in the Premier League. Additionally, teams react differently to fixture congestion during the Christmas period.

Manager Sackings and Appointments

Appointing a new manager during the season may improve a team's chances of success. For instance, Wolverhampton appointed Vítor Pereira on December 19, 2024, following a poor start to the 2024/25 season, and he helped them avoid relegation. Bookies do recognise managerial change patterns and adjust the odds accordingly.

Media Narratives & Betting Momentum

For each season, the media portrays certain narratives of teams they expect to win the league, leading to massive betting volume on those teams. In turn, bookies reduce the odds value on these teams to reduce the number of bets. They also increase the odds for the less favourite teams to attract more bets on them.

When to Lock In Value on Premier League Outrights

Finding value is key to enjoying Premier League bets. Here are the best moments to bet on outright markets.

• Pre-season: The best time to find value on outright markets is before the season starts. Once the season kicks off, the odds begin to shift and reduce the value as the league progresses.

• After early upsets: Sometimes, a favourite can have a bad start to the season, which could reduce their implied probability. If you still believe in them, the best time to back them is when their odds value increases, just before they gain momentum.

• During fixture pile-ups: Squad depth becomes essential during fixture congestion in the Christmas period. You can back a team that has a bigger squad and fewer injuries to scale this period.

• Post-January transfer window: Sometimes, waiting until after the January transfer window is perfect before locking in on value. Most of the time, the real run to win the league or avoid relegation starts from January. It also allows you to make more informed decisions. For instance, Leicester won the 2015/16 title by losing only one of the final 19 games. 

Strategies for Tracking and Spotting Shifts in Outright Odds

Recognising value in the outright market takes effort. Here are the strategies that can help you.

• Follow betting exchanges vs. traditional bookies: Exchange platforms like Betfair do not have a house edge or bookmaker margin and offer higher odds than traditional bookmakers. Consider using betting exchanges for better odds.

• Using odds comparison tools: Use platforms like Oddschecker and SmartBets to compare odds across bookmakers. You can get a higher payout on your stake by betting on a bookmaker with higher odds.

• Monitoring team news, injuries, and fixtures: Following team news for updates like injuries and suspensions helps you know when to place your bet. Also, watch out for challenging fixture congestion before placing your wager. 

• Watching market liquidity and sharp money moves: Sharp bettors tend to wager against where the money is. If the odds value on an underdog reduces overnight, the odds may be shifting in their favour. 

More Guides from UK Betting Experts

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• How to Bet on Premier League Corners Like a Specialist - Full Guide Here

Responsible Gambling 

As you already know, outright betting markets can be challenging to predict because of variables that can happen during the season. Therefore, we recommend only betting what you can afford to lose. In case you're getting addicted, kindly sign up with the GamStop self-exclusion programme to take some time off for up to 5 years. 

Betting sites also have deposit and time limits tools to help you stay in control. Additionally, they will request your government-issued ID to confirm you're 18 years or above.