Formula 1 Betting Trends: What the Last 5 Seasons Reveal

How Formula 1 Betting Works

Like other major sports, Formula 1 has many betting markets. UKGC-regulated bookmakers, such as bet365 and PaddyPower, offer options including podium finishes, futures, race winners, fastest laps, and head-to-heads. 

However, races are not as frequent as matches in football and races in horse racing. For Formula 1, only a maximum of 24 events are held per year, with approximately one race every two weeks. Hence, betting options are usually limited. On the other hand, football matches and horse races often happen daily, opening a wide range of betting options for punters. 

When betting on Formula 1, trends are crucial because a handful of drivers consistently dominate across races. This is unlike football and horse racing, where upsets are usually common. Therefore, betting on favourites at Formula 1 races offers consistent returns. However, the returns are generally small, so most players bet on niche markets, such as fastest laps and head-to-heads, for higher returns.  

Key Betting Trends from the Last 5 F1 Seasons

The last five F1 seasons have been nothing but eventful, with Max Verstappen claiming the Driver's Championship from 2021 to 2024. The emergence of Verstappen gave Lewis Hamilton, who has won 7 championships, a run for his money. Before you bet on Formula 1 this season, here are some of the trends that will guide your predictions.

• Mercedes vs Red Bull Dominance

Over the last five seasons, Red Bull and Mercedes have dominated Formula 1. While Mercedes claimed the Constructors' Championship from 2019 to 2021, Red Bull won the next three. Hence, the odds were always on their side, and they were the safest choice for punters.

• Qualifying vs Race Outcome Correlation

Comparing a driver's finishing position to their starting position from qualifiers is crucial for predicting who will win the race. For instance, Max Verstappen won all 12 of his pole positions in the 2023 season. On the other hand, Charles Leclerc could not win any of his five pole positions that season. Punters betting on the Monaco Grand Prix usually back drivers in the pole position because of the difficulty in overtaking. However, it's easier to overtake on tracks like Spa or Monza.

• Safety Car Influence

The influence of a safety car on the race outcome cannot be overstated. It neutralises the race by slowing down the pack and reducing the gaps among the drivers. Even lapped cars are sometimes allowed to rejoin the lead lap before the race resumes. For instance, Verstappen clinched the 2021 Championship by overtaking Hamilton in the final stint of the Abu Dhabi GP after Nicholas Latifi crashed. 

• Weather Unpredictability

Weather conditions such as heavy rain, extreme heat, cold temperatures, and strong winds can significantly impact the outcome of the race. It affects the driver's visibility and tyre strategy and often levels the playing field, allowing for unexpected outcomes. Poor weather may sometimes lead to the race being abandoned. For example, the 2021 Belgium Grand Prix was abandoned due to heavy rain and poor visibility.

• Impact of New Regulations in 2022

The change in regulations in 2022 ended Mercedes' dominance by allowing other cars to compete more effectively.  The tyre wheels increased from 13 inches to 18 inches, making cars heavier. The FIA also reinforced the cost cap introduced in 2021, giving teams like Williams and Haas a better chance of competing.

Driver Performance and Betting Patterns

Despite the push to level the playing field, Formula 1 remains a sport where drivers can dominate for extended periods. Consider Michael Schumacher's time with Ferrari from 2000 to 2004, Hamilton's stint from 2014 to 2020, and Verstappen from 2021 to 2024.

In recent years, the odds for each race have usually favoured elite drivers like Lando Norris, Leclerc, Hamilton, and Verstappen. Most punters are more comfortable backing these elite drivers because they combine their skill set and momentum with car superiority to deliver reliable and consistent performances.

For instance, Verstappen and Hamilton can adapt easily in wet races. Verstappen has also mastered the Dutch GP, while Hamilton performs well at Silverstone. 

However, despite being favourites, backing these elite drivers only returns a handful of profit. Additionally, upsets at races occur frequently. That's why finding value in midfield drivers is crucial for more payouts. From time to time, midfield drivers tend to cause upsets due to unpredictable weather conditions, the safety car, and their own special skills. For example, Sergio Pérez excels at conserving tyres, making him a strong candidate for top 6 finishes.    

Many upsets have happened in recent years. Notable ones include Carlos Sainz's first-ever win at the British GP in 2022. Oscar Piastri also clinched the Japan GP in 2023. So, while it's safer to back the elite drivers, real value lies in the underdogs.

Team Strategies and Constructor Influence

Although Formula is an individual sport, it is also a team sport. There is no doubt that cars contribute to over 60% of the driver's success. If a car doesn't have the right design or upgrade, even the best driver will be powerless. Therefore, a constructor plays a crucial role in determining the outcomes.

For instance, Mercedes dominated the F1 world from 2014 to 2021 thanks to their engine. They won 8 consecutive Constructors' titles during that period. However, they've struggled recently due to handling ground-effect regulations in 2022, which resulted in the resurgence of Red Bull.

Additionally, teams develop strategies to improve their competitiveness. When competing for the title, teams typically designate a number one driver by favouring the driver with the best chance of winning the championship.

Punters must also recognise patterns of risk management, pit stop timing, and tyre choices. A short pit stop time is one of the strategies a team adopt. For instance, a 2.0-second pit stop can maintain the driver's lead, while a 5.0-second pit stop may jeopardise it. Sometimes, a team's strategy is to sacrifice a driver who will block rivals and test tyres. 

UK-Specific F1 Betting Insights

Formula 1 has a strong base in the UK thanks to the British GP at Silverstone. The race day attracts over 150,000 spectators, making it one of the most attended events in Motorsport. 

The interest in elite drivers like Lando Norris, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton has continued to keep fans and punters engaged. Most UK punters continue to favour Hamilton despite his recent struggles, leading bookmakers to shorten his odds because of volume. 

Unlike football, the F1 betting types are limited. Hence, most punters prefer accumulator bets. Their accumulator picks may appear as follows.

• Russell to win 

• Safety car: No

• Hamilton to finish on the podium

• Norris to beat Verstappen head-to-head 

To improve their bankroll and explore more betting options, most punters take advantage of free bets and bonuses. Bookmakers like William Hill and PaddyPower are popular for offering promotions specific to F1 events. 

Future Outlook: What to Expect from the Next F1 Seasons

F1 remains dynamic thanks to new technological advancements. Following the latest regulations in 2022, more outsiders may have the opportunity to clinch the championship. The likes of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are expected to be in the forefront, while Hamilton and Verstappen may remain relevant. One of McLaren and Williams might go on a sudden run of dominance for the next few seasons.

New regulations are expected to emerge, with MGU-K (350 kW output) replacing MGU-H (120 kW output) in 2026. Only teams that quickly adapt will dominate for the next years. The internal combustion engine is expected to decline, but the total hybrid output is expected to remain unchanged. FIA also aims to make fuel 100% sustainable, with a shift towards net-zero carbon by 2030.

Additionally, cars are expected to drop about 30 KG in weight and will become even faster. FIA will also welcome Cadillac as the 11th team by 2026. Overall, greater parity is expected, providing all teams with a level playing field.

More UK Betting Guides from our Experts...

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Responsible Gambling

We understand the excitement of betting on your favourite driver, but you must be 18 years or above to place bets in the UK. You’ll need to upload a valid ID document to verify your age and identity.

If you're of gambling age, remember that Formula One betting should be all fun. Please wager only what you can afford to lose, and don't chase your losses. You can set up deposit and time limits to stay in control.  If you feel overwhelmed, sign up for the GamStop self-exclusion programme to stay away from betting for up to 5 years.