How to Understand Betting Trends for Canadian Teams

What Are Betting Trends?

One of the ways to make informed betting choices is by analyzing betting trends. They offer insights into which teams bettors are backing for a sports event. Betting trends show where the money is and which team or player is attracting the most bets. They also reveal how the odds of a particular match change over time. 

Trends feature key elements that help bettors analyze and make decisions. Find them below for a better understanding.

• Public betting and money percentage: You can see the percentage of bets placed on each team using the public betting percentage. For example, 70% of bettors might back the Montreal Canadiens to beat the Ottawa Senators. The percentage of money indicates where the most money is. For example, more money might be bet on the Senators even though they are the underdogs.

• Line movement: When sportsbooks recognize public betting percentages, they adjust the odds by shifting the value in favour of the other team. They may also change the odds in response to injuries and weather conditions. Line movement reflects how odds change over time.

• Sharp vs square money: Most casual bettors follow the crowd by betting on the favourites. Their bets are considered square or public money. On the other hand, bettors who identify value in the underdog are known as sharp bettors. They usually wager more money and base their bets on research and data. 

Most fan bases of Canadian sports teams overestimate their teams and bet with their hearts instead of their heads. This creates a bias in the market, leading to overbetting on favourites and influencing betting trends. Sportsbooks quickly identify these trends and adjust the odds to shift the value to the other side. This gives sharp bettors an edge in finding where the real value is.

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Canadian Major League Sports Teams

Canada is home to many big franchises competing in the NHL, NBA, MLB, MLS, and CFL. Here are four of the major professional sports teams in Canada.

Toronto Blue Jays

As the only Canadian team in the MLB, the Toronto Blue Jays are a source of pride for Canada on the global stage. They were founded in 1976 as an expansion team of the American League. However, they played their first exhibition game in 1977. 

The Blue Jays became the first non-U.S. team to win the Commissioner's Trophy after their victory over the Atlanta Braves in 1992. They became the World Series champions for the second and last time in 1993. 

The Blue Jays are based in Toronto, playing at Rogers Centre. They are currently the fourth most valuable franchise in Canada and one of the top 10 largest teams in the MLB.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Founded in 1917, the Toronto Maple Leafs have a name that speaks for itself. They have won 13 Stanley Cups, the second most after the Montreal Canadiens, who hold 24 titles. 

As the second most valued sports team in Canada, the Leafs are based in Toronto. They currently play at the Scotiabank Arena, a venue shared with the Toronto Raptors. The Leafs compete in the Atlantic Division and have been chasing their 14th Stanley Cup since 1967. They hold the longest active championship drought in the NHL. 

Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors are the only Canadian team in the NBA. Due to the global reach of the NBA, the Raptors are the most valuable Canadian sports team. They are also among the top 10 most valuable NBA teams. 

Founded in 1995, the Raptors have one NBA Championship to their name, which came in 2019. They belong to the Atlantic Division of the Eastern Conference. The Raptors last made the playoffs in 2022, qualifying as the 5th seed. They have missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons, finishing 11th in the East in the 2024/25 season.

The Montreal Canadiens

The Montreal Canadiens are the most successful franchise in the NHL with 24 Stanley Cups. They last won the trophy in 1993 and are still searching for their next. That year was also the last time a Canadian team won the Stanley Cup. 

The Canadiens were established in 1909, even before the NHL was formed. They are one of the original six teams in the NHL. Their history and tradition make them a major force not only in the NHL but also among Canadian sports teams. 

They proudly embrace their French-Canadian heritage, with the nickname "Le Bleu-Blanc-Rouge." They display “CH” on their logo, which stands for “Club de Hockey Canadien.”  

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Why Canadian Teams Can Be Unpredictable

Despite regularly defying the odds, Canadian teams have mostly remained inconsistent. As a result, it's hard to know what to expect or predict the outcomes of games. 

The unique dynamism of Canadian franchises has a significant impact on performance, making it challenging to forecast results accurately. Here are the factors that make Canadian teams unpredictable. 

• Media Hypes: Teams in Toronto and Montreal are at the centre of media attention, which puts pressure on them. A win is overhyped, while a loss is overcriticized. For example, a Toronto Raptors game in the NBA Championship final will attract all the media hype, drawing more casual betting.  

• National fanbase: Teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Toronto Raptors are the only teams representing Canada in their respective leagues. They have a large national fan base, and expectations are usually high. This also contributes to significant public betting trends because fans are emotionally invested.

• Weather conditions: Weather plays a significant role in the outcomes of games. For instance, the Toronto Maple Leafs may have a cold-weather home advantage over teams from warmer regions. Visiting teams from places like California and Arizona may struggle with navigating snow and delayed flights, which can lead to fatigue and poor performance.

• Travel Fatigue: Smart bettors think about travel fatigue before placing bets. Most Canadian teams often travel long distances within Canada and to the U.S. Fatigue could set in and influence their performance.

• Cross-border matchups: Canadian teams in the NHL, NBA, and MLB compete against U.S. teams. The energy lost during travel can cause fatigue and impact their performance. Similarly, U.S. teams visiting Canadian franchises often face travel challenges due to adverse weather conditions and delayed flights.

How to Analyze Betting Trends for Teams like the Raptors, Leafs, and Blue Jays

Moving from a casual bettor to an expert requires a thorough analysis of betting trends. To help you wager like a pro, we've provided tips to interpret and follow betting trends for teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, Toronto Maple Leafs, and Toronto Raptors. 

• Sportsbook data: Most Canadian sportsbooks display information about bets placed on specific games. You can find the percentages of players backing each team and see who the crowd supports. Some sportsbooks also show the percentage of money wagered on each side.

• Reverse line movements: Compare the current odds to the opening lines to identify any shifts. Reverse line movement occurs when the sportsbook adjusts the odds in the opposite direction of where the public money is. This can help you find valuable odds and make smarter wagers.

• Over/under trends: Tracking odds movements for over/under helps you optimize your returns. Sportsbooks may adjust the over/under odds in response to weather, injuries, and suspensions of key players. 

• ATS stats: If a team consistently beats the spread, consider betting on them. Checking ATS stats helps to identify a team's performance relative to the spread over time. Target some underdogs with a history of covering the spread.

Rest days are another factor to consider. Players with more rest days tend to perform better. Additionally, teams perform differently at home and away. Therefore, home/away splits are worth examining. Check how teams perform at home or on the road as part of your betting trend strategy.

Tools & Resources for Canadian Bettors

Analyzing betting trends takes time and effort. To enhance your efforts, several tools are available to help you. Many licensed sportsbooks display data on each game. Betting sites like FanDuel Canada, BetMGM, and bet365 show information on the number of bets placed on each team. You'll also see the total amount of money wagered on each team. This allows you to identify where the public and sharp money are easily. 

In addition to data from sportsbooks, you can also use external tools to monitor betting trends. For example, Covers provides ATS stats and matchup data for both teams. On the other hand, Action Network helps spot line movement and where public money is.

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Case Studies: Past Betting Trends on Canadian Teams

The legalization of single-event sports betting in Canada has improved the scope of betting trends. The popularity has grown since 2021, as players can now wager on individual events. To give you a sense of how it works, here are real-life examples of past betting trends for major Canadian sports teams.

Toronto Raptors 2019 Playoff Run 

The Toronto Raptors entered the 2019 playoffs as underdogs, and public money was on the Milwaukee Bucks and the Golden State Warriors. Many betting sites adjusted their lines to offer better value for the Raptors, giving sharp bettors opportunities in the market. 

As the playoffs progressed, the Raptors regularly covered the spread, especially in crucial games, providing smart bettors with consistent value. They also received strong support at home against the Warriors during their championship run, with a 7-2 record until the Eastern Conference final. Unfortunately, they lost 1-2 at home to the Warriors, surprising casual bettors. More smart bettors remained cautious and focused on other options, such as over/under.

Leafs' Games 7 Woes

The Toronto Maple Leafs haven't won a Game 7 since 2004, when they defeated the Ottawa Senators. They are now on a 7-game losing streak in Game 7s. The most memorable one was in 2013 when they lost to the Boston Bruins 5-4 after overtime, blowing a 4-1 lead with 10 minutes remaining. 

It has now become a common trend among bettors to bet against the Leafs once it's Game 7. The story remains the same, and those who follow the crowd usually make accurate predictions. 

Responsible Gambling 

It's easy to develop gambling addictions because of the excitement involved. This leads many players to wager more than they can afford to lose. We recommend using responsible gambling tools to stay disciplined and maintain control. 

All licensed sportsbooks in Canada have deposit and time limits to help manage how much you spend on their platforms. They also offer self-exclusion options to give you a break. If you need additional assistance, please contact ConnexOntario, CAMH, OAMHP, and GGTU. 

All sportsbooks will also ask for your identification documents to verify your identity and age. Submit your passport, residence permits, or driver's license. You might also be required to provide a utility bill to confirm your address.